apres l invasion du camp de refugies de Balata/ after the military incursion in Balata refugee camp

(c) Anne Paq, Balata Camp, 24 February 2006.
Apres 5 jours d'invasion les troupes militaires israeliennes se sont retirees du camp de refugies de Balata, pres de Naplouse.
Je suis arrivee alors que la plupart de la foule quittait le cimetiere, deja rempli de "martyrs". Il y a eu 6 morts durant l'invasion, dont deux adolescents et de nombreux blesses. les ambulances ne pouvaient pas atteindre le camp. Des membres de la croix rouge ont ete attaques et blesses.
le camp etait encore secoue, en photo le cimetiere, des debris de la maison ou les militants ont ete tues, le lit crible de balles dans leur cache, une maison a moitie detruite, mesure de punition collective contre les habitants pour avoir heberge un militant, la femme tient des balles qui ont ete recuperees dans sa maison.Il s'agit de la plus grosse operation militaire depuis le desengagement de la bande de gaza.


Friday, 24 February, Balata camp.

After 5 days of military invasion, the Balata refugee camp is a mess. I went to the cemetery already full of martyrs, there were still some people mourning the death of 6 from the refugee camp, including 2 teenagers. The pictures tell it all. the rumbles in the alley come from the house where the wanted militants were hidden.
the bed is riddled with bullets. Another house was partly destroyed as part of a collective punishment measure against the families who let one militant to sleep in the house. the bullets presented by the Palestinian woman come from her home. It was the biggest military operation since the withdrawal from the Gaza Strip

Nablus (Ma'an) - The Union of Palestinian Medical Relief Committees issued its findings regarding the treatment of medical crews during the week's Israeli invasion of eastern Nablus' Balata Refugee Camp.

Ma'an is reprinting the UPMRC report in full:

"Military incursions in Balata refugee camp are ongoing since Friday evening, 17/2/2006. Thursday, 23/2/2006, the IOF (Israeli Occupation Forces) reinvaded Balata refugee camp in a search for armed resistance fighters. During the invasions the IOF continued damaging civilians' properties and injuring civilians, also firing on first aid teams and journalists trying to work inside the camp.

"The IOF took over several civilian homes, occupying them, locking its inhabitants in one room. PMRS first aid teams and ambulances were present at the site trying to give assistance to the camp inhabitants.

"The IOF fired life ammunition to the medical teams present, injuring several people, including medical staff from PMRS.

"* Jarir Zakaria Qanadilu, ambulance driver for PMRS: he got shot by two bullets, one in his hand and one in his left leg. Currently he is still in surgery.
* Ahmad Arabat, first aid staff for PMRS: shrapnel in the chest.
* Ihab Mansour, first aid staff for PMRS: shrapnel in his head. Ihab, while being injured, was also arrested from the ambulance, and is currently held in detention for reasons that are unclear.

"* In addition 2 international volunteer were injured: one Dutch volunteer was hit by shrapnel in the shoulder and an American volunteer was hit by a bullet in the hand.

"It should be clear to everybody that these current military invasions are part of a new line of Israeli provocations and are aiming for more collective punishments against the Palestinian people. Therefore Palestinian Medical Relief Society is calling the international community and its international donors to pressurize Israel to stop attacking medical personnel and to hold Israel accountable for these new war crimes, demanding an immediate halt to the continuous Israeli military invasions in Nablus (Balata refugee camp), the killing and injuring of innocent civilians and medical personnel. These acts are a violation of 4th Geneva Convention (International Humanitarian Law), leading until now to the death of at least 8 people and injuring 45."

conference a Bilin

International Conference Against the Wall begins in Bil'in
IMEMC & Agencies - Monday, 20 February 2006, 14:44

A two-day conference in the village of Bil'in, known throughout the world as a focal point of the non-violent struggle against the Israeli Wall construction in Palestine, began today with the participation of hundreds of Palestinians, Israelis and international supporters.
The Israeli annexation Wall, nearing completion on the Western side (with construction beginning in the Jordan Valley on the eastern side), is a 200-mile, 25-foot-high deemed an “Apartheid Wall” by Palestinians, who named it after the reviled South African term meaning “apartness.” In the northern West Bank, the first phase of the Apartheid Wall is approximately 70 miles long and includes electric fences, a “dead zone,” trenches, cameras, sensors and security patrols, with certain cities, like the city of Qalqilia -- a city of 40,000 people, completely enclosed inside the Wall, all at a cost of tens of millions of dollars.

The Wall does not mark the 1967 border, also known as the “Green Line.” The first phase places 45,000 West Bank acres on the Israeli side, approximately three percent of Palestinian’s land mass. The footprint of the wall itself is enormous, with as much as 8,750 acres completely lost. Construction of the wall has also meant the removal of tens of thousands of trees, severely affecting the Palestinian people's water supply (mainly based in underground wells).

The conference brings together people who support the popular non violent Palestinian movement to take part in workshops about the history and methods of non violent resistance in Palestine. Participants are focusing on the practical aspects of the struggle by sharing the experiences and lessons of such struggles at different locations in Palestine. The conference, organized by the Popular Committee Against the Wall and supported by a number of other organization, is being held in the public school in the Palestinian village of Bil'in, and brings together Palestinians, Israelis and internationals engaged in the non-violent struggle against the Israeli annexation Wall.

On the second day of the conference, participants will plant olive trees in the area behind the Israeli Annexation Wall to replace some of those that have been destroyed by Israeli forces.

Bil'in is one of several villages that have spearheaded the non-violent resistance to the Wall, as villagers find themselves separated from their land, their homes demolished and families split in two as the Wall's construction continues through their land.






Day 1:
> 9:00-10:30 Opening session.
>
> Welcome message
>
> The current state of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip under
occupation.
> The wall, the settlements, check points and travel restrictions.
> The history of Palestinian non violent resistance and Palestinian-
> Israeli-International joint struggle.
>
> 10:30-11:00 Break.
>
>
> 11:00-12:15 Presentations session.
>
> Representatives of struggles at different locations will give short
5-10
> minute descriptions of their experiences. At the end of all the
> presentations there will be a short question period. These
experiences
> will be the focus of the different workshops and and the preseters
will
> form the core of the workshop groups. The introductions should help
> people choose the workshop they wish to join. A tentative list of
focus
> struggles is:
>
> Budrus.
> Beit Likya.
> Bilín.
> Nablus.
> East Jerusalem.
> Hebron.
> SouthHebron mountain area.
>
> Break and choosing workshops.
>
> 12:45-14:00 First workshop session.
> The pros and cons of joint struggle. The workshops will discuss what
> constitutes a joint struggle, what advantages it has and what
> disadvantages. What problems are encoutered in the course of joint
> struggle and ow they can be dealt with.
>
> 14:00-15:30Lunch break.
>
> 15:30-16:45Second Workshop session. The practice of non violent
> resistance in the struggles and brainstorming for new ideas ad
methods.
>
> 16:45-17:15 Break.
>
> 17:15-18:30 Conclusions session.
> Representatives from each workshopw will present the resuls of the
> discussions to the whole assembly.
>
> 18:30-20:00 Dinner.
>
> Day 2
>
> 9:00-11:00 A discussion by the whole assembly of a joint acion to be
> taken a few weeks after the conference at different locations by the
> participants.
> A demonstration by conferece participants and the village
> people.
>
>
> [Gush Shalom is among the sponsoring peace groups]





Lundi 20 Fevrier 2006.
Ci-dessus est le programme d'une conference de deux jours a Bilin, sur la resistance non-violente.Malheureusement je ne peux pas y aller. a ma connaissance c est une premiere conference de ce type sur le lieu meme des manifestations.
Hier deux jeunes ont ete tues au camp de refugies de Balata, pres de Naplouse.
Le gouvernement israelien a qualifie l'autorite palestinienne d'autorite terroriste.
les pressions sur les Palestiniens s'intensifient, depuis quelques jours les checkpoints sont plus nombreux et plus difficiles...je pense que nous avons des jours difficiles a venir.

le droit d'aimer- Joyeux Saint Valentin/ The right to Love- Happy Valentine's day

Mardi 14 Fevrier, Saint Valentin.

La Saint Valentin est aussi fete ici en Palestine.
Ironiquement, en ce jour, un article dans haaretz est paru sur les declarations d un juge a la Cour Supreme Israelienne. au cours des debats sur un amendement sur la Loi sur la Citoyennete. L'amemdement vise a empecher de reunir les couples mixtes israelien et palestinien en empechant d'octroyer la citoyennete israelienne au conjoint/conjointe palestinien.
De fait cela revient a empecher le marriage entre israeliens et palestiniens.
Le juge a declare que les citoyens israeliens qui veulent epouser des Palestiniens devraient aller vivre a Jenine. La petition devant la Cour Supreme declare: " la liberte individuelle touche au droit humain le plus basique: le droit d'aimer et d'etre aime par son partenaire, d'aspirer a etablir un foyer et une vie commune sans interference institutionnelle".

Pas de Saint Valentin non plus pour Nayfa Abu Imsaa'id, 25 ans. une jeune femme tuee par balles par des soldats israeliens alors qu'elle se promenait avec une de ses amies, selon des sources palestiniennes a 500 metres du Mur.

Joyeux Saint Valentin.



Tuesday 14 February, 2006, Valentine's day.

Check this article on Harretz Below that ironically was published on Valentine's day. The petition in front of the High Court talks about the right to love and to be loved. The petition concerns an amendment to the Citizenship law which will basically prevent mixed Israeli and Palestinian couple to live together. In the debate, the judge declares that the Israelis who want to marry Palestinians should go to live in Jenine. Even love becomes a security threat, love true can turn down a lot of walls,and the fear.

No Valentine's day neither for Nayfa Abu Imsaa'id, a young 25 years old Palestinian womanwho was shot yesterday while she was walking along with a friend. The Israeli soldiers claimed that she was close to the Wall (anyway even of she was, why to kill her?), the Palestian sources assert that she was 500 meters away.

Happy Valentine's day.





Judge: PA is enemy; Israelis who marry Palestinians can go live in Jenin

By Yuval Yoaz, Haaretz Correspondent

During a final debate Tuesday before the High Court was to issue its ruling on a petition calling for the cancellation of an amendment to the Citizenship Law, Justice Mishael Cheshin said Israeli citizens who marry Palestinians should go live in Jenin.

"The Palestinian Authority is an enemy government, a government that wants to destroy the state and is not prepared to recognize Israel," Cheshin said during the debate.

The amendment to the law would prevent the unification of mixed families via the granting of Israeli citizenship to Palestinians married to Israelis. The petition was filed in 2003 by the Association for Civil Rights in Israel, The Adalah Legal Center for Arab Minority Rights in Israel and other bodies.


Cheshin reproached the petitioners for asking the state to define the security risks entailed in the granting of citizenship. In cases where the granting of Israeli citizenship to a Palestinian spouse would indeed pose a risk to state security, the petitioners asked that such individuals instead be granted entry visas.

"We need to listen to the declarations made by Hamas on a daily basis. The Palestinian people chose Hamas," Cheshin said.

"It's true that the Palestinians are not a hostile people. But are the State of Israel's defensive efforts against terror attacks, against lone individuals carrying out attacks not a sufficient enough reason to prevent their entry? Why should we take chances during wartime? Did England and America take chances with Germans seeking their destruction during the Second World War? No one is preventing them from building a family but they should live in Jenin instead of in [the Israeli Arab city of] Umm al-Fahm. The romance is touching but we are talking about life and death and the right to life takes priority," Cheshin said.

Supreme Court President Aharon Barak raised the possibility of alternate options that would infringe less on human rights.

It is possible, according to Barak, that Palestinians who marry Israelis could remain in Israel but would be granted identity cards visually different from those issued to Israeli citizens. This difference would allow their identification even after their entry into Israel is approved.

The petitioners claim the amendment, which denies citizenship to Palestinians but would grant it to other foreign nationals who marry Israelis, is inherently discriminatory and racist.

"Personal freedom touches on the most basic of human rights: The right to love, to love and be loved by one's partner, to aspire to establish a home and a joint life without any institutional obstacles," the petition said.

le droit d'aimer- Joyeux Saint Valentin/ The right to Love- Happy Valentine's day

Mardi 14 Fevrier, Saint Valentin.

La Saint Valentin est aussi fete ici en Palestine.
Ironiquement, en ce jour, un article dans haaretz est paru sur les declarations d un juge a la Cour Supreme Israelienne. au cours des debats sur un amendement sur la Loi sur la Citoyennete. L'amemdement vise a empecher de reunir les couples mixtes israelien et palestinien en empechant d'octroyer la citoyennete israelienne au conjoint/conjointe palestinien.
De fait cela revient a empecher le marriage entre israeliens et palestiniens.
Le juge a declare que les citoyens israeliens qui veulent epouser des Palestiniens devraient aller vivre a Jenine. La petition devant la Cour Supreme declare: " la liberte individuelle touche au droit humain le plus basique: le droit d'aimer et d'etre aime par son partenaire, d'aspirer a etablir un foyer et une vie commune sans interference institutionnelle".

Pas de Saint Valentin non plus pour Nayfa Abu Imsaa'id, 25 ans. une jeune femme tuee par balles par des soldats israeliens alors qu'elle se promenait avec une de ses amies, selon des sources palestiniennes a 500 metres du Mur.

Joyeux Saint Valentin.



Tuesday 14 February, 2006, Valentine's day.

Check this article on Harretz Below that ironically was published on Valentine's day. The petition in front of the High Court talks about the right to love and to be loved. The petition concerns an amendment to the Citizenship law which will basically prevent mixed Israeli and Palestinian couple to live together. In the debate, the judge declares that the Israelis who want to marry Palestinians should go to live in Jenine. Even love becomes a security threat, love true can turn down a lot of walls,and the fear.

No Valentine's day neither for Nayfa Abu Imsaa'id, a young 25 years old Palestinian womanwho was shot yesterday while she was walking along with a friend. The Israeli soldiers claimed that she was close to the Wall (anyway even of she was, why to kill her?), the Palestian sources assert that she was 500 meters away.

Happy Valentine's day.





Judge: PA is enemy; Israelis who marry Palestinians can go live in Jenin

By Yuval Yoaz, Haaretz Correspondent

During a final debate Tuesday before the High Court was to issue its ruling on a petition calling for the cancellation of an amendment to the Citizenship Law, Justice Mishael Cheshin said Israeli citizens who marry Palestinians should go live in Jenin.

"The Palestinian Authority is an enemy government, a government that wants to destroy the state and is not prepared to recognize Israel," Cheshin said during the debate.

The amendment to the law would prevent the unification of mixed families via the granting of Israeli citizenship to Palestinians married to Israelis. The petition was filed in 2003 by the Association for Civil Rights in Israel, The Adalah Legal Center for Arab Minority Rights in Israel and other bodies.


Cheshin reproached the petitioners for asking the state to define the security risks entailed in the granting of citizenship. In cases where the granting of Israeli citizenship to a Palestinian spouse would indeed pose a risk to state security, the petitioners asked that such individuals instead be granted entry visas.

"We need to listen to the declarations made by Hamas on a daily basis. The Palestinian people chose Hamas," Cheshin said.

"It's true that the Palestinians are not a hostile people. But are the State of Israel's defensive efforts against terror attacks, against lone individuals carrying out attacks not a sufficient enough reason to prevent their entry? Why should we take chances during wartime? Did England and America take chances with Germans seeking their destruction during the Second World War? No one is preventing them from building a family but they should live in Jenin instead of in [the Israeli Arab city of] Umm al-Fahm. The romance is touching but we are talking about life and death and the right to life takes priority," Cheshin said.

Supreme Court President Aharon Barak raised the possibility of alternate options that would infringe less on human rights.

It is possible, according to Barak, that Palestinians who marry Israelis could remain in Israel but would be granted identity cards visually different from those issued to Israeli citizens. This difference would allow their identification even after their entry into Israel is approved.

The petitioners claim the amendment, which denies citizenship to Palestinians but would grant it to other foreign nationals who marry Israelis, is inherently discriminatory and racist.

"Personal freedom touches on the most basic of human rights: The right to love, to love and be loved by one's partner, to aspire to establish a home and a joint life without any institutional obstacles," the petition said.

Qalandia by night

Mercredi 8 Fevrier; terminal de Qalandia (voir photo ci dessous)

Jour de grand froid en Palestine, presque un temps de tempete. Petit tour au terminal de qalandia pour voir comment les gens passent le terminal par un temps pareil.
Un enfant me demande si je viens du Danemark. Je reponds non et continue mon chemin....apres tout la France est aussi sur la liste noire, donc je me dit que c est pas la peine de preciser ma nationalité.
Au checkpoint; la file d'attente est impressionante, tout le monde rentre la tete dans les manteaux. Le vent fait trembler les toles; ce qui fait un bruit epouvantable. La lumiere au dessus du tourniquet reste desesperemment rouge. Les Palestiniens sont tellement patients c est incroyable.Enfin j'arrive a passer; le temps ensuite de passer de l autre cote il fait deja nuit. Un soldat interpelle deux jeunes Palestiniens; il les amene dans une barraque (il y en a plusieurs dans le terminal) peut etre pour fouille, interrogation ou tout simplement les garder quelques heures. Je repasse le checkpoint. Le vent est glacial. La tour militaire projette un spot lumineux sur les gens qui passent, ce qui rajoute au glauque de la situation. Je retrouve le meme gamin, qui me redemande encore si je suis Danoise. Un peu agacée je lui reponds cette fois que non, je suis française. Bon maintenant vont-ils m'insulter? Mais un des jeunes sourit et ouvre son gilet...je me demande s'il va me montrer un Tshirt du Hamas..mais non ils s'agit d'un portrait de Zidane! Je rigole et lui dit que Zidane est le meilleur et repars aussi en souriant...Merci Zidane d'exister! Grâce à toi; les français ont toujours la côte.

Wed, 8 February 2006; Qalandia Terminal (see pictures below)

What a cold day for Palestine, we had almost a storm. So I decided to go to the terminal to check how the people are doing with that cold weather....
At my arrival a kid asks me if I am from Danemark. I say no and continue my way; thinking that also France is on the black list so it is probably best not to say my nationality too loud.
At the checkpoint the queue is so impressive. The wind makes the roof very noisy. The light above the turnstiles remains desperatly red Every waits calmy and frankly I wonder how Palestinians can be so patient. On the other side a soldier stops two guy and take them to a special room (they are several in the terminal) maybe for questions; search or just to keep them a few hours. I go back to the Ramallah side, the military watch tower projects a light on people. I meet again the same kid whoç asks me again if I am Danish. This time, a little bit annoyed I answer that I am French. I wonder if i am about to get some insults. But one of the young Palestinian smiles at me and opens his coat. Ok is he going to show me a Hamas Tshirt? But no; it was a Tshirt with the portrait of Zidane! I laugh and i tell him that Zidane is really the best. Walking away I smile...thank you Zidane to exist! owing to you the French are still welcomed.

qalandia by night

(c) Anne Paq; Qalandia; Mercredi 9 fevrier 2006

La force de protection internationale quitte Hebron/ the international protection team leaves Hebron

Mercredi 8 Fevrier 2006

Quand je suis allee a Hebron la semaine derniere j ai rencontre des personnes de la force temporaire de protection temporaire de Hebron (TIPH). Ils m'ont dit que des membres danois avaient deja quitte Hebron mais je ne crois pas qu'ils pensaient eux memes avoir a quitter Hebron.
Ces personnes sont des observateurs internationaux dans la vieille ville. ils se placent aux checkpoints, accompagnent les enfants palestiniens a l ecole et essayent par leur simple presence de minimiser les violences contre les civils palestiniens que ce soit par les colons ou les soldats israeliens.
Tristement les voila obliges de plier bagages a la suite d'attaques des Palestiniens eux memes a la suite des caricatures du prophete Mahomet. les colons doivent se rejouir. Triste jour pour Hebron.

When I visited Hebron last week I met some of the members of the team of the TIPH.They told me that that teh Danish members had to leave. I do not think that they were thinking about having to leave themselves. There is almost no international organization working in Hebron., TIPH members are always there. they stand at checkpoints, and go around. They go along with the Palestinian kids to schools. They try by their presence to minimize violence against Palestinian civilians perpetrated by the Israeli settlers and soldiers. Sometimes that they are not so successful but at least they are there and can report.
Sadly today thw whole team will leave after attacks by Palestinians that entered their building and destroy everything inside, following the wave of protest against cartoons of the prophet Mohammad. The Settlers must be very happy. What a sad day for Hebron. Wed 8 February 2006

Hebron (Ma'an) – The head of the Temporary International Presence in Hebron (TIPH), Arenston Ouvreqel, said that the group will leave Hebron after students broke into their offices in the city.

During a demonstration Wednesday against offensive caricatures of the Prophet Mohammad, students forcefully entered the TIPH building and destroyed its contents.

The TIPH has been a fixed mission in Hebron since February 1, 1997. The mission, whose mandate is to monitor and report on the situation of Palestinians in Hebron, is composed of observers from Denmark, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and Turkey.

Ouvreqel reported during a press conference Wednesday afternoon, "We, the 72 members from six countries will leave Hebron after the destruction of the TIPH headquarters. We feel sorry for what has happened."

"We used to live in peace," he added, "But what happened changed the situation and we will leave for the safety of the TIPH members."

Entre soldats et colons, la vieille ville de Hebron (1)/ Between soldiers and settlers, the Old City of Hebron (1)

(c) Anne Paq.

Rues desertes et etoiles de David inscrites par les colons (ici sur le cimetiere palestinien) font partie des caracteristiques courantes de la vieille ville de Hebron. Voir aussi texte dans post precedent.



Deserted streets and david stars drawn by settlers (here on the Palestinian cemetery)are current features in Hebron Old City). see also text in previous blog

Entre soldats et colons, la vieille ville de Hebron 2/ Between soldiers and settlers, the Old City of Hebron 2

(c) Anne Paq
Hebron, Tuesday 31 January 2006
Les enfants de Tel Rumeida jouent devant les soldats qui protegent les colons de Tel Rumeida. Installes au coeur de la vieille ville, les colons terrorisent la population palestinienne sous l oeil bienveillant des soldats. J'etais allee a Hebron pour assister a une evacuation forcee de certains colons dans une autre partie de la vieille ville, dans l ancien marche. Cette partie etait avant la plus vivante de la vieille ville. Desormais, a cause des colons et de la pression exercee par l'armee, la plupart des habitants palestiniens sont partis et tous les magasins sont fermes. Finalement, les colons ont accepte de partir volontairement, en faisant un marche avec l'armee israelienne: ils seront autorises a revenir plus tard! Encore une masquarade donc. d un cote montrer des signes de bonne volonte, mais de l'autre maintenir la strategie de colonisation.

Old City of Hebron, Tuesday 31 January 2006.
The Children of Tel Rumeida play football in front of the Israeli soldiers, who are there in permanence to protect the settlers. Living at the heart of the Old City the settlers terrorize the Palestinian inhabitants, with the complicity of the soldiers.That day i went to Hebron to take pictures of the forced evacuation of the settlers in another part of the Old city, in the vegetable market. This part was one of the most lively part of the Old City. Now it is deserted. Almost all Palestinian inhabitants have left under the pressures and harrassments of the settlers and the Israeli army. The shops have all closed. Finally the settlers accepted to leave volontarily after a deal with the Israeli army according to which they will be able to come back! Once again it is thus only a act of good will in the surface and at the end it only serves the overall goal of colonization.

manifestation contre les dessins du prophete Mohammed/ demonstration against the cartoons of the prophet Mohammad

(c) Anne Paq.
Ramallah,vendredi 3 fevrier.
Sous une pluie battante, manifestation contre les dessins du prophet Mohammed.
Le drapeau francais est dechire, je pretends que je suis allemande quand on me demande d'ou je viens. les reactions virulentes se sont un peu calmees depuis. mais beaucoup se sont vraiment sentis attaques dans leur foi.

Friday 3 February,
under pouring rain, a demonstration in Ramallah against the cartoons of the prophet Mohammad. The French flag was torn and I pretended that I was a German when I was asked where I come from...the violent reactions seem now to be over in the West Bank. But a lot of people fely very attacked in their faith

various scenarios

Analysis on Miftah


As the shock generated by Hamas’ unexpected victory in last week’s parliamentary elections subsides somewhat, all attention in the region is now focused on the crucial variables that remain in flux: will Hamas form the entirety of the Cabinet and insist that President Abbas appoint a Hamas-chosen Prime Minister? Will it moderate its stance on the crucial questions of the role of violence in the Palestinian resistance and the right of Israel to exist? If not, will the Western powers, on whose aid the PNA is so dependent, do as they have threatened and cut off all aid? If so, will the streets of Palestine descend into further chaos, thronged by angry – and perhaps violent -- unpaid PNA employees? Meanwhile, will Israel’s politicians – with their eyes firmly set their own impending electoral campaigns – continue to harden their stances against working with a Hamas-led PNA, thereby making any EU–engendered compromises impossibly difficult to implement? None of these questions have obvious answers, though Palestine-watchers seem to agree on three basic scenarios.

The worst case scenario:

In the worst-case scenario, Hamas forms the entire cabinet and insists that President Abbas appoints a Hamas man as Prime Minister. President Abbas acquiesces, and Parliament ratifies a mostly-Hamas cabinet. Hamas continues to make some moderate statements in the press, but its Charter – calling for violent resistance against the Israeli occupation, and for the eventual destruction of the state of Israel – remains unchanged. As a consequence, EU, the US, Russia and all major Western donors cut off aid to the PNA (though they may continue to provide aid to Palestine indirectly through local and international NGOs, as well as through the U.N.), and Israel, of course, suspends all contact with the PNA. The PNA’s fiscal bankruptcy leaves it unable to pay February salaries to the 135,000 people currently on its pay-roll, and this leads to rioting among the already ill-disciplined security forces (who number at approximately 58,000). Palestine is left, in short, bankrupt, isolated, and on the brink of civil war.

The best case scenario:

In the best-case scenario, Hamas forms a majority of the cabinet but leaves important posts, especially finance, civil affairs, and internal security, to apolitical technocrats who have the confidence of the PLC, the President, and the international community. Most importantly, the Prime Minister is also a technocrat (though he will be aligned with the more moderate elements in Hamas). Hamas amends its Charter to exclude the most objectionable provisions, and Western governments follow through on their aid commitments, thereby staving off, at least temporarily, the fiscal crisis. Israel remains distant, but does not cut off all contacts, continuing to cooperate with the PNA, for example, on important quotidian matters such as the opening of the Karni border crossing and the release of customs revenue owed to the PNA. In the absolute Panglossian case, the new post elections Israeli government makes a serious effort to re-start negotiations with the new PNA.

The middle-road outcome:

The most likely outcome is, as is usual in the case of Palestine, also the least predictable. While it is possible that Hamas will play its cards astutely, thereby not insisting on going down a path that will lead to disaster, it is also possible that anything it does will fall far below Western – and Israeli – demands. Hamas may well agree to a technocrat PM, and it may well relinquish key cabinet positions to apolitical experts (though the supply of such experts willing to work with a Hamas-led government is perilously short), but it may also refuse to amend its Charter and agree, at most, to a temporary suspension of acts intended to destroy Israel. None of this will be enough to incentivise Western donors to fulfill their commitments, although there may well be differences in policy between the Europeans and the Americans on this matter. Hamas will do what it can to collect the money to pay salaries; the sources of its funds have always been mysterious and they may continue to remain so, with alarming consequences.

The extremes of emotion engendered by the elections last week – euphoria, shock, exultation, dismay, fear – have more or less faded from Palestinian minds, only to be replaced now with one overwhelming sentiment: uncertainty. The Palestinian public, which seemed so decisively to have taken its fate in its own hands, can now only wait and watch, along with the rest of the world, to see what happens.

What they have to say

Khalid Mish'al


Tuesday January 31, 2006

The Guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1698702,00.html



It is widely recognised that the Palestinians are among the most
politicised
and educated peoples in the world. When they went to the polls last
Wednesday they were well aware of what was on offer and those who voted
for
Hamas knew what it stood for. They chose Hamas because of its pledge
never
to give up the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people and its
promise
to embark on a programme of reform. There were voices warning them,
locally
and internationally, not to vote for an organisation branded by the US
and
EU as terrorist because such a democratically exercised right would
cost
them the financial aid provided by foreign donors.



The day Hamas won the Palestinian democratic elections the world's
leading
democracies failed the test of democracy. Rather than recognise the
legitimacy of Hamas as a freely elected representative of the
Palestinian
people, seize the opportunity created by the result to support the
development of good governance in Palestine and search for a means of
ending
the bloodshed, the US and EU threatened the Palestinian people with
collective punishment for exercising their right to choose their
parliamentary representatives.



We are being punished simply for resisting oppression and striving for
justice. Those who threaten to impose sanctions on our people are the
same
powers that initiated our suffering and continue to support our
oppressors
almost unconditionally. We, the victims, are being penalised while our
oppressors are pampered. The US and EU could have used the success of
Hamas
to open a new chapter in their relations with the Palestinians, the
Arabs
and the Muslims and to understand better a movement that has so far
been
seen largely through the eyes of the Zionist occupiers of our land.



Our message to the US and EU governments is this: your attempt to force
us
to give up our principles or our struggle is in vain. Our people who
gave
thousands of martyrs, the millions of refugees who have waited for
nearly 60
years to return home and our 9,000 political and war prisoners in
Israeli
jails have not made those sacrifices in order to settle for close to
nothing.



Hamas has been elected mainly because of its immovable faith in the
inevitability of victory; and Hamas is immune to bribery, intimidation
and
blackmail. While we are keen on having friendly relations with all
nations
we shall not seek friendships at the expense of our legitimate rights.
We
have seen how other nations, including the peoples of Vietnam and South
Africa, persisted in their struggle until their quest for freedom and
justice was accomplished. We are no different, our cause is no less
worthy,
our determination is no less profound and our patience is no less
abundant.



Our message to the Muslim and Arab nations is this: you have a
responsibility to stand by your Palestinian brothers and sisters whose
sacrifices are made on behalf of all of you. Our people in Palestine
should
not need to wait for any aid from countries that attach humiliating
conditions to every dollar or euro they pay despite their historical
and
moral responsibility for our plight. We expect you to step in and
compensate
the Palestinian people for any loss of aid and we demand you lift all
restrictions on civil society institutions that wish to fundraise for
the
Palestinian cause.



Our message to the Palestinians is this: our people are not only those
who
live under siege in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip but also the
millions
languishing in refugee camps in Lebanon, Jordan and Syria and the
millions
spread around the world unable to return home. We promise you that
nothing
in the world will deter us from pursuing our goal of liberation and
return.
We shall spare no effort to work with all factions and institutions in
order
to put our Palestinian house in order. Having won the parliamentary
elections, our medium-term objective is to reform the PLO in order to
revive
its role as a true representative of all the Palestinian people,
without
exception or discrimination.



Our message to the Israelis is this: we do not fight you because you
belong
to a certain faith or culture. Jews have lived in the Muslim world for
13
centuries in peace and harmony; they are in our religion "the people of
the
book" who have a covenant from God and His Messenger Muhammad (peace be
upon
him) to be respected and protected. Our conflict with you is not
religious
but political. We have no problem with Jews who have not attacked us -
our
problem is with those who came to our land, imposed themselves on us by
force, destroyed our society and banished our people.



We shall never recognise the right of any power to rob us of our land
and
deny us our national rights. We shall never recognise the legitimacy of
a
Zionist state created on our soil in order to atone for somebody else's
sins
or solve somebody else's problem. But if you are willing to accept the
principle of a long-term truce, we are prepared to negotiate the terms.
Hamas is extending a hand of peace to those who are truly interested in
a
peace based on justice.



Khalid Mish'al is head of the political bureau of Hamas

article on elections

Wednesday, 1st February

the future is all blurred and as the author says, it seems that nobody really knows what to do. but i am not too optimistic for the months to come. it will take time to Hamas and Fateh to adjust to the new realities. I have no doubt that Hamas cannot accept to disarm in the near future. But leaders of Hamas are pragmatic and they have the power to impose a cease-fire, at least to his members but what about the other groups? Yesterday again one leader from Jihad Islamic in Jenine was killed by the Israeli army. In response Islamic Jihad called for revenge and told that the truce has been blown up. I expect some operations in Israel to be conducted soon, and the retaliation will be certainly hard. The Israeli governement again will say that there is no possible negociations in that context, while Palestinians might turn to a stronger armed resistance.
For the time being it is calm in Ramallah, but not in the North of the West Bank where military operations combined with a harsh policy of closures and checkpoints continue. In Gaza the karni checkpoint has been closed- no goods, no medecine, can get in and out. The construction of the Wall has been speeded up. while some settlers are removed from the Hebron vegetable market and in an outpost north of the west bank, the colonization continues in other parts. The Palestinians have waited for the last ten years the fulfilment of promises of a two state solution. The promises, made by their own leaders, the Israeli government and the international community have failed to materialize to believe in that process.
Now their patience has come to an end, and frankly i cannot see how we can blame them.


Find below a good analysis from the guardian.

Jonathan Freedland
Wednesday February 1, 2006
The Guardian


In this new landscape, everyone is in the dark. After Hamas won an enormous victory that shocked even them, all the players in the Middle East conflict are stumbling around, unsure how to negotiate the new terrain. No one knows quite what to do.
Proof of that came from Monday's statement of the Quartet of world powers who preside over what is still laughably referred to as the Middle East peace process. Translated, the diplomatese boiled down to a plea for time. Everyone wants a pause for breath, to see what happens in the Israeli elections on March 28, to see what Hamas does with its parliamentary majority. Hamas are not exactly in a hurry to start governing either: they anticipated (maybe even wanted) to form a large opposition bloc rather than be given the hospital pass of actually administering the Palestinian Authority. To have responsibility for daily Palestinian life yet, because under Israeli occupation, little power to do the job is a thankless, if not impossible, task. Hamas are talking of a "period of transition"; they moot a coalition with Fatah, the party they defeated. They too crave delay.

This stunned paralysis on all sides is down to more than just the shock of the new. It's also a function of the fact that there seem to be no good options, for anybody. Imagine a chess game in which every possible path is blocked: the players stare at their pieces, bite their nails and see only stalemate.

Take President Bush. If he recognises Hamas, he flatly contradicts his global war on terror - since both the US and EU have long branded Hamas a terrorist organisation. But if he doesn't recognise Hamas, he flatly contradicts his global campaign for democracy - since Hamas just won a clear majority in precisely the kind of free election Bush demands for the whole Arab world. He either, by his own logic, legitimates terror or he admits that he is offering only a Henry Ford kind of democracy: you can have whatever colour car you like - so long as it's black.

Europe is in a spot that is not much better. It can't keep up its financial aid, because that would be giving money to a terrorist organisation. But if it turns off the EU tap, Palestinian life will deteriorate even further. Perhaps pro-western Arab states, such as Egypt and Jordan, might fill the financial vacuum - but what if Syria and Iran get there first?

In this atmosphere of frozen confusion, people are clutching at past experience to see what lessons that might teach. In a round of conversations this week with those involved - including a senior figure in Hamas - everyone has come up with their own historical parallel.

First up has been the direct comparison of Hamas today with the PLO of three decades ago. They too were diplomatically shunned as a terror organisation that refused to recognise Israel. In reality, the PLO was on a journey that would culminate in the 1988 acceptance of Israel alongside a Palestinian state, eventual negotiations and the Oslo accords five years later. "Give them time," one veteran Palestinian negotiator told me yesterday. "It took us 40 years to reach that position."

You can see this parallel as either cheery or gloomy. Optimists will be heartened by Hamas's clear declarations that they are ready to accept a state on the post-1967 territories, if not as a final settlement then as a long-term interim solution. If they are willing to negotiate on that basis, there would be a great advantage: unlike the Fatah suits, they would command the backing of the Palestinian street for any peace deal they might sign.

Or the pessimist might marvel that, after 30 years of tears and bloodshed, we are right back where we were. We will have to go through the same old dance all over again: coded statements from the Palestinian side, tentative back channels from the Israelis, nudging from Washington, years of diplomacy - and just to get to the point that could and should have been reached in 1993.

Israelis in particular should be ruing their country's failure to seize the opportunity the first time around. They had, in Fatah and the PLO, a Palestinian leadership who had already made this long journey; but instead of stretching every sinew to make the 1993 accommodation work, Israel undermined it at every turn. It carried on building the settlements; it kept up the checkpoints, curfews and land confiscations. In the past year it has made the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, and the rest of the Fatah leadership look as if they had been duped. The message Israel sent to the Palestinian electorate was stark: peacemaking and moderation do not work. The Palestinians heard it loud and clear - and voted for Hamas. Pessimists will say it could take another decade or more for Hamas to go through the Fatah process. If and when they do, will Israel miss the opportunity again?

The second favoured parallel of the hour is with Northern Ireland, with Hamas in the role of Sinn Féin and the IRA. This comparison could be useful, if only for those Middle England audiences of Question Time and Any Questions who last week seemed outraged that Israel was not rushing into a warm embrace with Hamas. They might recall how unwilling the British public were to deal with republicans when the IRA were still fully engaged in armed struggle. Gerry Adams could rack up as many votes as he liked in West Belfast, it made no difference: Brits weren't allowed to hear his voice, let alone speak with him. We should bear that in mind next time we instruct foreigners to talk to people they regard as terrorists.

The trouble with the Northern Ireland comparison is that today's republicans have renounced violence and are nearly a decade into a ceasefire - and still unionism's biggest party won't talk to them. On that scale, an Israeli accord with Hamas is years away. I was also told yesterday that Hamas will never, ever disarm: "The legitimacy of their resistance is embedded too deep in Palestinian society." If decommissioning held back peace in Ulster for 10 years, what hope for Israel-Palestine?

No, the more likely future is one of what the Palestinian analyst and sometime negotiator Ahmad Khalidi calls "parallel unilateralism": each side will make their own moves, independent of the other. That will suit Israel, which has long insisted that "there is no partner" on the Palestinian side: if they could say that of the compliant Mahmoud Abbas, they won't soften for Hamas. Assuming Ehud Olmert wins in March, and is strong enough, he will continue Ariel Sharon's work - and stage further unilateral pullouts from the West Bank.

That will leave Hamas to make solo moves of its own. They might simply implement their key election promises: to clean out corruption, to extend their health and education services, to improve Palestinian daily life. Or, to put it more grandly, they might engage in state-building. Which brings us to perhaps the unlikeliest historic parallel of all. Hamas's best bet might be to learn not from Fatah or the IRA, but from the early Zionist movement. Living under colonial military rule from the 1920s to the 1940s, it focused its energies on building the institutions of statehood: schools, bureaucracy, even an embryonic national health service. When independence came in 1948 they were ready. Israeli rule is not the British mandate, I know. But there is a lesson there all the same - and Hamas would make a revolution by seizing on it.